Empowering Rural School Leaders: An Analysis of Three Policy Responses to Declining Enrollments

Rural schools face declining enrollments as rural populations decline. The Iowa model of Whole Grade Sharing is a better policy response than state mandated consolidation or forcing local school boards to face declining enrollments with no support from state government. 

Problem Definition

From 1996 to 2016 the Hardin-Central school district saw enrollment declines of 7.5 percent; in the neighboring district of Norborne the decline was a more drastic 31 percent (DESE). The enrollment trends match the demographic shift taking place in rural Missouri, characterized by the four percent decline in population in Carroll County, where Norborne is located, between 2010 and 2016 (United States Census Bureau). In an effort to maintain educational opportunities in the face of declining enrollments, a committee formed to study the consolidation of the two districts; however, after six meetings the committee voted not to pursue consolidation, in part because the consolidation would result in a loss of over $800,000 in state funding for the area (Rooney, 2018).

While other states employed proactive interventions to the effects of declining rural populations on education, Missouri’s state legislature has not. Missouri students deserve state leaders who will find responsible ways to protect opportunities for quality education in rural areas.  In a state with a significant percentage of students in rural schools, the problems presented by declining enrollments meet Bardach and Patashnick’s (2016) designation of “public problems” and “legitimately raise claims for amelioration by public resources” (p. 2).

Evidence

Rural states such as Missouri have seen demographic shifts induced by market forces which have decreased the number of farms in America between 2009 and 2016 (USDA). Fewer families own more land in Missouri, a state where enrollment is projected to experience downward trends, particularly in rural areas (Digest of Educational Statistics, 2016). Rural states across the nation have watched the number of districts shrink with their population. Between 1990 and 2009, Nebraska saw over 600 districts close when the legislature eliminated kindergarten through eighth grade districts (Surface, 2012). In Arkansas, Act 60 closed 57 districts (Nita, 2010). In Missouri, leaders have had no response to declining enrollments, and the state has the eighth highest number of school districts (521), in spite of having the 18th highest population (Digest of Educational Statistics, 2016).

The lack of response to declining rural enrollments by Missouri’s leaders places the state in a position to learn from literature produced researching the effects of consolidation elsewhere. Elf (2001) found high school students benefited the most from consolidation in her study of consolidation in an Ohio community. Secondary students report greater course offerings after consolidation (Nitta, 2010). Literature points to consolidation’s benefits for teachers as well as students. Nitta (2010) found teachers reported improved professional development and opportunities for collaboration following consolidation.

Missouri policy makers will also be well served by studying the challenges of consolidation. Surface (2012) found school consolidation can be a divisive issue for the communities affected for several reasons: the economic significance of a school district for small towns, rivalries between groups, and fears of losing community identity. The dynamics of perceived zero sum political games discussed by Samuelson (2016) are often at work in consolidation talks. When consolidation negotiations become too conflicted parties adopt deeply entrenched positions and rarely change strategies as described in game theory (Mouw, 2013). For this reason, Bard (2006) notes that the most successful consolidation efforts maintain schools in each town and engage the community in the process. State mandated consolidation is regarded as less effective (Bard, 2006).

Missouri policy makers must be informed about the current realities of Missouri’s rural schools. While figure 1 demonstrates significant differences between the projected enrollments of Missouri’s smallest and largest districts, figures 2 and 3 respectively demonstrate no significant difference in the academic performance or financial health of Missouri’s smallest districts in comparison to the largest.  Parents in small communities such as Norborne and Hardin intuitively worry about missed opportunities for their children; however, policy makers have no widespread evidence of academic or financial failures among small districts.

Figure 1

Effect of District Enrollment on Projected Change in HS Enrollment (2018-27)
		N	Mean	Std. Deviation	Std. Error Mean
% change	Smallest Districts	122	-0.14	0.305	0.027
	Largest Districts	122	0.002	0.181	0.016
Effect of District Enrollment on Projected Change in HS Enrollment (2018-27)
		Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
		F	Sig.	t	df	Sig. (2-tailed)
% change	Equal variances assumed	23.616	0	-4.396	242	0
	Equal variances not assumed			-4.396	197.031	0

Figure 2

Effect of District Enrollment on Percentage of Students Scoring Advanced
		N	Mean	Std. Deviation	Std. Error Mean
% advanced	Smallest Districts	160	17.53	8.73007	0.69017
	Largest Districts	160	17.5225	6.67354	0.52759
Effect of District Enrollment on Proficiency Percentage
		Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
		F	Sig.	t	df	Sig. (2-tailed)
% advanced	Equal variances assumed	9.154	0.003	0.009	318	0.993
	Equal variances not assumed			0.009	297.523	0.993

Figure 3

Effect on District Enrollment on Fund Balance Growth (2005-2011)
		N	Mean	Std. Deviation	Std. Error Mean
fundgrowth	Smallest Districts	183	0.6354	3.00372	0.22204
	Largest Districts	183	0.2019	2.15953	0.15964
Independent Samples Test
		Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
		F	Sig.	t	df	Sig. (2-tailed)
fundgrowth	Equal variances assumed	2.2	0.139	-1.585	364	0.114
	Equal variances not assumed			-1.585	330.478	0.114

Source: DESE

Evaluating Alternatives

Determining an appropriate public policy response often relies on analyzing various models (Bardoch & Patashnik, 2016). Consolidation efforts in other states allow Missouri policy makers to assess the models based on actual outcomes.

One model could be described as consolidation through state mandate. Arkansas used this model with Act 60 (Nita, 2010). Another Missouri neighbor, Nebraska, also mandated school consolidation, through the closing of kindergarten through eighth grade schools (Surface, 2012).  In Missouri, this approach has been advocated by legislators seeking to close small districts, but has not received enough statewide support to be implemented (Reishman, 2015).

Rather than force consolidation through mandate, Missouri’s state government has adopted a do-nothing model.  Local school boards and communities respond to declining enrollments at their own discretion. Rarely do local school boards make the difficult decision to close a district to join another, and when they do, the community suffers from the divisions and disruptions, as in the case of the Stet closure in 2014 (Rooney, 2014). Missouri’s school funding policies disincentivize consolidation as found by the Hardin and Norborne community members (Rooney, 2018).  

A third model can be found in Iowa, which neither mandates consolidation or leaves local communities to negotiate decline enrollment with no support. Iowa code section 282.10 allows communities to negotiate an intermediate phase of consolidation through a process known as whole grade sharing (Iowa Department of Education).  This model allows neighboring districts to share resources, while maintaining independent school boards and receiving the same state funding.

Predicting Outcomes

If state leaders continue with a do nothing approach to declining enrollment, predicting outcomes is straightforward. Rural districts will continue to decline in enrollment. While some communities may seek consolidation with their neighbors, game theory suggests most will hold tightly to their districts. As in the case of Stet, communities will struggle to determine when their district is no longer viable. Dissolutions of districts will only occur after capacity to deliver quality educational experiences begins to diminish. The outliers who seek planned consolidation will find, as the Norborne/Hardin group did, state funding policies a deterrent to their efforts.

Should the state adopt a forced consolidation model, the process will happen faster, but local communities will not have as much agency in crucial decisions such as the setting of boundaries and closure of schools. Leading new districts in communities that have been forced together without consent will be challenging for boards and administrators. Over time, students will benefit from consolidation, but the transitions will be disruptive. Political pushback will be significant.  

The Iowa model of whole grade sharing presents a third path. Should the state support communities that show interest in pooling resources voluntarily, overcoming the inertia of community identity will be less difficult for local leaders. An external change in financial factors would likely force parties to adjust their strategies and increase the likelihood of a Nash equilibrium emerging (Williamson 2013). Students and families can receive the benefits of consolidation without the disruption that can occur if the merger is dictated from the state capitol.

Confronting Tradeoffs

Evaluating trade-offs and outcomes requires leaders to consider “projections of policy outcomes for the various alternatives being considered” (Bardach & Patashnik, p. 47). Ignoring declining enrollments avoids short term political complications. Because data suggests academic outcomes are not significantly impacted by attending school in a smaller setting, no sense of emergency exists to motivate local leaders. Responsibility for evaluating the viability of the local district is passed to a future generation of local leaders. However, in the time that passes, students miss the improved social and extracurricular activities the literature documents. Teachers miss the professional support they would find in a larger district. Forced consolidation may accelerate a process which ultimately leads to better outcomes; however, community involvement in some decisions may be limited. The literature suggests that community engagement in the process is correlated to the ultimate success of the district.

Policies which incentivise consolidation empower local leaders to support and direct the pace and logistics of a consolidation effort. Students and teachers benefit, and disruption is minimized. The adoption of a policy permitting whole grade sharing would stress some sectors of the administrative bureaucracy; however, the state budget impacts would be minimal, as local districts would be receiving the same amount of state revenue.   

Conclusions

Declining rural populations and shrinking school enrollments present challenges to local government and school leaders. State leaders must respond to the demographic shift and engage with local communities in thoughtful ways. All evidence supports the adoption of the Iowa model which provides support, while respecting the autonomy of local school boards. Missouri’s rural residents would benefit from a similar practice.  

References

Bard, J. G., & Wieland, R. (2006).  Rural School Consolidation: History, Research Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations. Rural Educator, 27, 40-48.

Bardach, E. & Patashnik, E.  (2016). A Practical Guide for Policy Analysis.  Sage: Los Angeles.

Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (2018). Missouri Comprehensive Data System. Retrieved from https://mcds.dese.mo.gov/quickfacts/Pages/default.aspx

Elf, T. L. (2001). Evaluation of a Single School District Consolidation in Ohio.  American Secondary Education, 30(1), 71.

Iowa Department of Education (2017). Whole Grade Sharing. Retrieved from https://educateiowa.gov/whole-grade-sharing

Loss, C. & McGuinn, P. (2016).  The Convergence of K-12 and Higher Education. Harvard Education Press: Cambridge.

Mouw, C. (2013).  Game theory, political psychology, and the process of democratization. The Global Studies Journal. 5 (2). 7-17.

National Center for Educational Statistics. (2016). Digest of Educational Statistics 2016. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2017094

Nitta, Keith A., Holley, Marc J., Wrobel, Sharon L. (2014). A Phenomenological Study of Rural School Consolidation. Journal of Research in Rural Education, 15510670, 20100101, Vol. 25, Issue 2.

United States Census Bureau (2016). Quick Facts Carroll County, Missouri. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/carrollcountymissouri,MO,US/PST120216#viewtop

United States Department of Agriculture (2017). Farms and Land in Farms. Retrieved from

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/nass/FarmLandIn/2010s/2017/FarmLandIn-02-17-2017.pdf

Reischman, C. (2015). Bahr pushes to consolidate rural school districts. The Missouri Times. March 24, 2015.

Rooney, S. (2018, April 19). Committee vote: no consolidation. The Richmond Daily News. p. 1.

Rooney, S. (2014, January 16). April Election on Norborne, H-C Boundaries.  The Richmond Daily News. p. 1.

Samuelson, L. (2016). Game theory in economics and beyond. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 30, 107-130.

Zimmer, T., DeBoer, L., & Hirth, M. (2009). Examining Economies of Scale in School Consolidation: Assessment of Indiana School Districts. Journal of Education Finance, 35, Issue 2.

Legal Updates for the 2017/18 School Year

Notes from July 28, 2017 EdCounsel Seminar

OCR Memorandum:

Internal guidance from the Office Of Civil Rights will likely reduce the scope of investigations. For example, a complaint regarding a singular incident will be less likely to result in requests for data and documentation unrelated to the incident. The memo can be found below.

http://www.edcounsel.law/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/OCR-memo-re-investigations.pdf

Construction:

In Penzel v Jackson the court found that schools can be found liable for providing inaccurate specifications to contractors and subcontractors. Districts are advised to have all contracts with architects and bidding documents reviewed by legal counsel to reduce liability. Implied warranties should be disavowed.

While legislation was introduced to eliminate prevailing wage in Missouri, it did not pass. Prevailing wage is still law and should be included in all requests for bids.

Student Searches:

In State v Williams the court tightened qualification for allowable searches. It seems administrators have a higher bar to clear for demonstrating justifiable suspicion.

MHRA:

The Missouri Human Rights Act has been modified through legislative action which takes effect August 28. The causation standard for discrimination claims has been changed from "contributing factor" to "motivating factor." Additionally, individual liability for administrators has been eliminated.

Student Power of Attorney:

SB 128 expands the ability to transfer POA for students; however, it does nothing to change residency requirements. A parent can not grant POA to someone living in a neighboring district as a means for enrolling in the district. Also, granting POA does not eliminate parental rights. SB 128 requires annual renewal.

Violent Threats and Social Media:

In Ross v City of Jackson the court defined true threats on social media. It seems administrators have more leeway to determine threats. Free speech claims will offer less protection for individuals posting comments that are perceived as threatening. Administrators are encouraged to document and capture screen shots.

Random Drug Testing:

In Kittle-Aikeley v Strong, the court ruled drug testing in a college trade program was constitutional only because a safety concern could be demonstrated. Schools must be able to articulate the need for random testing in policy. The bar for requiring random testing seems to be rising.

Transgender Students:

On July 18, 2017 the Missouri Court of Appeals determined that a transgender student did not make a viable claim of sexual discrimination in RMA v Blue Springs Schools. Several other cases are working their way through federal courts. Districts are advised to clearly document adherence to OCR complaint processes. Adopting specific policies may not be advisable. Administrators should strive work with transgender students and families on a case by case basis.

Retirees:

SB 62 makes it more difficult to use retired teachers in 550 positions and as substitutes. Districts using contracted services for substitutes should contractually require contractors to track and report hours worked.

Celebrating the Solar Eclipse with a Digital Breakout Room, a guest post from Wendy Lentz

Monday, August 21, 2017 is shaping up to be an exciting day for parts of the United States.  The long awaited solar eclipse is upon us and offering excitement, opportunity, and challenge in the education community.  While some schools may still be enjoying summer vacation others will just be dipping their toes into a new school year.  My school district in Missouri will be just four days into the new year.  In anticipation of the big event I have created a digital breakout room (and shared it for you to use below) for my students to complete.  While breakout rooms can be used for any grade level or curricular area, this particular breakout is designed for grades 6-12.  With some additional adult support it could also be use with younger students perhaps in a home school environment or adults at an eclipse party.

As we prepare for this big event, I am keeping three primary objectives in mind, knowledge, safety, and experience.  I desire for my students to gain new knowledge in the science behind the event and in the known history of eclipses.  I also desire for them to be safe and understand what the dangers could be if they aren’t making smart choices. Finally, I want them to truly experience this phenomena with their eyes and their brains.  With all of these things in mind I knew this was an opportunity that couldn’t be passed up.  I imagine my school and most all schools in my area will be planning events for this day.  With that being said I am preparing to be flexible with implementation.  While the breakout could be done on the day of the eclipse I don’t want to chance kids missing the chance to complete the breakout.  We will complete the activity a couple days prior to allow for full participation.

So what is a breakout room?  Breakout rooms began gaining in popularity around the world in 2010.  The former first family was even spotted taking in a breakout room a few years ago in Hawaii. These rooms are physical spaces that challenge the participants to breakout or escape by solving problems, puzzles, codes, and riddles in order to unlock parts of the room leading to an eventual escape, hopefully.  The rooms are themed and typically carry a 60 minute time limit.  My family recently participated in a breakout room for my daughter’s thirteenth birthday.  It was intense and fun.  It was interesting to see how everyone in the group worked a little differently during the challenge and how proud we were when we solved a problem.  Meanwhile, one member of the group constantly begged for clues.  While I won’t name any names his relation to me rhymes with fusband.

My family escaped!

Watch as these newscasters experience a breakout room.

Where is the connection to the classroom?  As breakout rooms grew in popularity, teachers began incorporating the structure into their classrooms as a way to teach or review material while causing students to investigate, solve problems and to build teamwork skills through a highly engaging activity.  This kind of experiential learning and teaching is driven by how something is taught versus what is being taught.  These activities also offer students opportunities to build a resilience to failure and the courage to persevere through a challenging situation or problem.

As the use of breakout rooms in education has expanded, the structure of their implementation has also evolved.  Earliest rooms were designed and built by individual teachers.  In 2015, the website and blog breakoutedu.com began offering quality kits, templates, and breakout plans for teachers to purchase and use.  Recently, some teachers began using a digital version called digital breakout rooms.  These digital rooms offer students the same opportunities to solve puzzles, search for clues, and unlock a variety of locks without additional costs to the teacher.

Here is the link to the digital breakout room for the Solar Eclipse Breakout.  I have not included the answers on the site but I'd be happy to share them with you if needed.  I would highly encourage you to to complete the breakout on your own first to fully experience it; The Cult of Pedagogy would call this Dogfooding.  The base of the breakout is a Google site with embedded information and clues.  Encourage students to read carefully and closely.  Remind them to click on EVERYTHING and think creatively to unlock the locks in the google form.  If students don't enter a lock code correctly the line underneath will remain red, but when it turns blue the lock is unlocked!  Remember that you are just the facilitator.  It is natural for the students to reach a point of frustration when they are stuck. You can help guide them by continuing to offer questions to open their thinking.  Keep in mind that some of the information on the site has no purpose except to inform, these bits of information are called distractors.  When the students unlock all the locks they should submit the form and give the secret phrase to the teacher.  Plan to take photos of student successes and attempts then share with your school community!  I have also included some teacher tips including a 45 minute digital timer, tips for helping students when they are stuck, and a place for participants to leave feedback after the experience.  All of this can be found on a tab in the top right hand corner of the site.  Please keep in mind that the “Teacher Tips” tab is not connected to the breakout room in anyway but everything else on the site is fair game.  If you have questions feel free to email me at lentz-wendy@trojans.k12.mo.us or on Twitter @wendylentz.  Enjoy the eclipse!

Fishing

Four days before my daughter's fifteenth birthday, and a year after a move, we loaded the canoe on top of the van and headed off to go fishing.

After a day fishing "the lake at the old house."
Fifteen seemed a long way off. 

It would be the first time in a year the two of us sat in the canoe together- something we did on an almost nightly basis before the move, when we lived on a twenty-five acre lake that offered a large mouth or crappie on almost every cast. We challenged ourselves at one point to see how many days we could fish in a row- even if it meant sneaking in a few casts in the morning before school. The move was a big adventure, and a successful one, but it didn't provide many opportunities for little adventures.

The canoe sat at the edge of a little farm pond, too small to hold much more than the tiniest sunfish. My son enjoys paddling around it with his Buzz Lightyear pole, but Savannah never took the bait- it wasn't the lake at the old house.

I was surprised and excited when she took interest in heading to the Grand River. When she was little, she enjoyed fishing. Mostly I enjoy catching. If they're not biting, I'm ready to head to the house. But Savannah was always stubborn. If the action was slow, she got frustrated, but she would not quit fishing. I wondered if she had outgrown all that.

The M Hwy Bridge at Bosworth

We paddled upriver from the access, taking the same route steam boats once took from the Missouri to Chillicothe. After stoping at a gravel bar, we began floating downstream, working the bank with a worm and a jig, the way we caught bass in the lake. Cast after cast- no bites. Carp jumped from the surface to mock us, and we were jealous of the fishermen we saw taking fish off trotlines. There was frustration, but there was also comfort in re-engaging in our bickering about who was rocking the canoe, or why it was obvious that casting there would get you snagged.

We didn't do any catching, but we were both glad we went fishing.

Leading Change Successfully

Organizational leadership often requires directing change efforts.  At times the efforts are reactive and required by outside forces. While leading a reactive change can be difficult, doing so requires less skill and exposes the leader to less risk than change of a proactive nature. Proactive changes are driven by shifts in stakeholder desires and often result in a changed vison and structure. In a reactive change, driven by changes in revenue or legislation, the leader’s primary task is to communicate and monitor; stakeholders know the change must take place regardless of the leader. In proactive change, the leader must do more than communicate, she must analyze power dynamics while developing and adjusting complex strategies.

Analyzing Power

Too often leaders do not consider the nature of power deeply enough.  As Prusser and Marginson  (2012) noted, “the time is right to more deeply consider the nature and sources of power” (p. 91). An incomplete understanding of power may tempt a leader, especially in educational organizations, to rely too heavily on position or coercive power without understanding the limits of these forms of power (French & Raven, 1959). At times, leaders, realizing that “power is the ability to produce intended effects,” may be intimidated by their potential (Pussser and Marginson, 2012, p. 91).  Leaders do well to remember Foucault’s assessment of power: “We have to stop describing power always in negative terms: it excludes, it represses. In fact, power produces; it produces reality” (Foucault, 1975, p. 12).  The responsibility of leaders is to wisely craft the changes that produce new realities.

Limits of Power

While an educational organization often can be described in a traditional pyramid structure, the power dynamics are often much more complex and look more like “freewheeling coalitions rather than formal hierarchies” (Bolman & Deal, 2013, p. 190).  A failure to understand these coalitions will limit the leader’s ability to enact change. Even in settings where the leader has tremendous power change can be difficult to lead, as evident in the Chinese government's failed efforts to change a culture of copyright abuse (Bolman & Deal, 2013).

Exercising Power Pragmatically

One of the first tasks of a leader charged with implementing change is to survey the current power dynamics through a “force field analysis” (Levi, 2017, p. 231). The leader must measure the support and opposition to the change, while realizing that “organizations are inevitably political” (Bolman & Deal, 2013, p. 190).  Typically, in such organizations, change will be resisted, and the leader must anticipate opposition, because key stakeholders will only recognize power as the “actor’s ability to impose his will in spite of resistance” (Pusser & Marginson, 2012, p. 91).

In these political settings the leader will be well served by using referent power to build capacity, by increasing the number of individuals who support the change, because they desire to join the growing group (French & Raven 1959).  Establishing referent power will only happen when the leader understands how to function in settings where “conventions, words, practices and knowledge are more important than legal decrees” (Pusser & Marginson, 2012, p. 93).  Knowledge, in particular, provides excellent potential for the leader to increase in power, because in dynamic situations, a person who learns and communicates fastest will inevitably be conferred a greater degree of expert power to shift the paradigms of members of the organization (French & Raven, 1959). Communicating the leader’s knowledge in these settings, requires the leader’s to develop and cultivate informal networks (Bolman & Deal, 2013, p. 198). In informal networks, leaders are advised to be aware of the symbolic dynamics at work in an organization because all stakeholders are motivated by values and a desire to seek out significance (Bolman & Deal, 2013). Relationships are the only avenue for identifying moments where the intersection of circumstance, a deeper sense of values, and a desire for significance leave an individual open to accepting a change (Lamar, 2012).

  

References

Bolman, Lee G. & Deal, Terrence E. (2013). Reframing Organizations. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

French Jr., John R. P. & Raven, Bertram. (1959).  The basis of social power. In Shafritz, Jay M., Ott, Steven J., & Jang, Yong Suk. (Eds.), Classics of organization theory (pp. 311-320). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.  

Lamar, Kendrick, 2012. Dying of thirst. On Good kid, M.A.A.D city. Los Angeles, Top Dawg.  

Levi, D. (2017). Group dynamics for teams. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE

Pusser, Brian & Marginson, Simon. (2012). The elephant in the room: power, politics, and global rankings in higher eduation. In Bastedo, Michael N. (Ed.) The organization of higher education. (pp. 86-117). Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.