Problem Definition
From 1996 to 2016 the Hardin-Central school district saw enrollment declines of 7.5 percent; in the neighboring district of Norborne the decline was a more drastic 31 percent (DESE). The enrollment trends match the demographic shift taking place in rural Missouri, characterized by the four percent decline in population in Carroll County, where Norborne is located, between 2010 and 2016 (United States Census Bureau). In an effort to maintain educational opportunities in the face of declining enrollments, a committee formed to study the consolidation of the two districts; however, after six meetings the committee voted not to pursue consolidation, in part because the consolidation would result in a loss of over $800,000 in state funding for the area (Rooney, 2018).
While other states employed proactive interventions to the effects of declining rural populations on education, Missouri’s state legislature has not. Missouri students deserve state leaders who will find responsible ways to protect opportunities for quality education in rural areas. In a state with a significant percentage of students in rural schools, the problems presented by declining enrollments meet Bardach and Patashnick’s (2016) designation of “public problems” and “legitimately raise claims for amelioration by public resources” (p. 2).
Evidence
Rural states such as Missouri have seen demographic shifts induced by market forces which have decreased the number of farms in America between 2009 and 2016 (USDA). Fewer families own more land in Missouri, a state where enrollment is projected to experience downward trends, particularly in rural areas (Digest of Educational Statistics, 2016). Rural states across the nation have watched the number of districts shrink with their population. Between 1990 and 2009, Nebraska saw over 600 districts close when the legislature eliminated kindergarten through eighth grade districts (Surface, 2012). In Arkansas, Act 60 closed 57 districts (Nita, 2010). In Missouri, leaders have had no response to declining enrollments, and the state has the eighth highest number of school districts (521), in spite of having the 18th highest population (Digest of Educational Statistics, 2016).
The lack of response to declining rural enrollments by Missouri’s leaders places the state in a position to learn from literature produced researching the effects of consolidation elsewhere. Elf (2001) found high school students benefited the most from consolidation in her study of consolidation in an Ohio community. Secondary students report greater course offerings after consolidation (Nitta, 2010). Literature points to consolidation’s benefits for teachers as well as students. Nitta (2010) found teachers reported improved professional development and opportunities for collaboration following consolidation.
Missouri policy makers will also be well served by studying the challenges of consolidation. Surface (2012) found school consolidation can be a divisive issue for the communities affected for several reasons: the economic significance of a school district for small towns, rivalries between groups, and fears of losing community identity. The dynamics of perceived zero sum political games discussed by Samuelson (2016) are often at work in consolidation talks. When consolidation negotiations become too conflicted parties adopt deeply entrenched positions and rarely change strategies as described in game theory (Mouw, 2013). For this reason, Bard (2006) notes that the most successful consolidation efforts maintain schools in each town and engage the community in the process. State mandated consolidation is regarded as less effective (Bard, 2006).
Missouri policy makers must be informed about the current realities of Missouri’s rural schools. While figure 1 demonstrates significant differences between the projected enrollments of Missouri’s smallest and largest districts, figures 2 and 3 respectively demonstrate no significant difference in the academic performance or financial health of Missouri’s smallest districts in comparison to the largest. Parents in small communities such as Norborne and Hardin intuitively worry about missed opportunities for their children; however, policy makers have no widespread evidence of academic or financial failures among small districts.
Figure 1
Effect of District Enrollment on Projected Change in HS Enrollment (2018-27)
| ||||||
N
|
Mean
|
Std. Deviation
|
Std. Error Mean
| |||
% change
|
Smallest Districts
|
122
|
-0.14
|
0.305
|
0.027
| |
Largest Districts
|
122
|
0.002
|
0.181
|
0.016
| ||
Effect of District Enrollment on Projected Change in HS Enrollment (2018-27)
| ||||||
Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
| ||||||
F
|
Sig.
|
t
|
df
|
Sig. (2-tailed)
| ||
% change
|
Equal variances assumed
|
23.616
|
0
|
-4.396
|
242
|
0
|
Equal variances not assumed
|
-4.396
|
197.031
|
0
| |||
Figure 2
Effect of District Enrollment on Percentage of Students Scoring Advanced
| ||||||
N
|
Mean
|
Std. Deviation
|
Std. Error Mean
| |||
% advanced
|
Smallest Districts
|
160
|
17.53
|
8.73007
|
0.69017
| |
Largest Districts
|
160
|
17.5225
|
6.67354
|
0.52759
| ||
Effect of District Enrollment on Proficiency Percentage
| ||||||
Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
| ||||||
F
|
Sig.
|
t
|
df
|
Sig. (2-tailed)
| ||
% advanced
|
Equal variances assumed
|
9.154
|
0.003
|
0.009
|
318
|
0.993
|
Equal variances not assumed
|
0.009
|
297.523
|
0.993
| |||
Figure 3
Effect on District Enrollment on Fund Balance Growth (2005-2011)
| ||||||
N
|
Mean
|
Std. Deviation
|
Std. Error Mean
| |||
fundgrowth
|
Smallest Districts
|
183
|
0.6354
|
3.00372
|
0.22204
| |
Largest Districts
|
183
|
0.2019
|
2.15953
|
0.15964
| ||
Independent Samples Test
| ||||||
Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
| ||||||
F
|
Sig.
|
t
|
df
|
Sig. (2-tailed)
| ||
fundgrowth
|
Equal variances assumed
|
2.2
|
0.139
|
-1.585
|
364
|
0.114
|
Equal variances not assumed
|
-1.585
|
330.478
|
0.114
| |||
Source: DESE
Evaluating Alternatives
Determining an appropriate public policy response often relies on analyzing various models (Bardoch & Patashnik, 2016). Consolidation efforts in other states allow Missouri policy makers to assess the models based on actual outcomes.
One model could be described as consolidation through state mandate. Arkansas used this model with Act 60 (Nita, 2010). Another Missouri neighbor, Nebraska, also mandated school consolidation, through the closing of kindergarten through eighth grade schools (Surface, 2012). In Missouri, this approach has been advocated by legislators seeking to close small districts, but has not received enough statewide support to be implemented (Reishman, 2015).
Rather than force consolidation through mandate, Missouri’s state government has adopted a do-nothing model. Local school boards and communities respond to declining enrollments at their own discretion. Rarely do local school boards make the difficult decision to close a district to join another, and when they do, the community suffers from the divisions and disruptions, as in the case of the Stet closure in 2014 (Rooney, 2014). Missouri’s school funding policies disincentivize consolidation as found by the Hardin and Norborne community members (Rooney, 2018).
A third model can be found in Iowa, which neither mandates consolidation or leaves local communities to negotiate decline enrollment with no support. Iowa code section 282.10 allows communities to negotiate an intermediate phase of consolidation through a process known as whole grade sharing (Iowa Department of Education). This model allows neighboring districts to share resources, while maintaining independent school boards and receiving the same state funding.
Predicting Outcomes
If state leaders continue with a do nothing approach to declining enrollment, predicting outcomes is straightforward. Rural districts will continue to decline in enrollment. While some communities may seek consolidation with their neighbors, game theory suggests most will hold tightly to their districts. As in the case of Stet, communities will struggle to determine when their district is no longer viable. Dissolutions of districts will only occur after capacity to deliver quality educational experiences begins to diminish. The outliers who seek planned consolidation will find, as the Norborne/Hardin group did, state funding policies a deterrent to their efforts.
Should the state adopt a forced consolidation model, the process will happen faster, but local communities will not have as much agency in crucial decisions such as the setting of boundaries and closure of schools. Leading new districts in communities that have been forced together without consent will be challenging for boards and administrators. Over time, students will benefit from consolidation, but the transitions will be disruptive. Political pushback will be significant.
The Iowa model of whole grade sharing presents a third path. Should the state support communities that show interest in pooling resources voluntarily, overcoming the inertia of community identity will be less difficult for local leaders. An external change in financial factors would likely force parties to adjust their strategies and increase the likelihood of a Nash equilibrium emerging (Williamson 2013). Students and families can receive the benefits of consolidation without the disruption that can occur if the merger is dictated from the state capitol.
Confronting Tradeoffs
Evaluating trade-offs and outcomes requires leaders to consider “projections of policy outcomes for the various alternatives being considered” (Bardach & Patashnik, p. 47). Ignoring declining enrollments avoids short term political complications. Because data suggests academic outcomes are not significantly impacted by attending school in a smaller setting, no sense of emergency exists to motivate local leaders. Responsibility for evaluating the viability of the local district is passed to a future generation of local leaders. However, in the time that passes, students miss the improved social and extracurricular activities the literature documents. Teachers miss the professional support they would find in a larger district. Forced consolidation may accelerate a process which ultimately leads to better outcomes; however, community involvement in some decisions may be limited. The literature suggests that community engagement in the process is correlated to the ultimate success of the district.
Policies which incentivise consolidation empower local leaders to support and direct the pace and logistics of a consolidation effort. Students and teachers benefit, and disruption is minimized. The adoption of a policy permitting whole grade sharing would stress some sectors of the administrative bureaucracy; however, the state budget impacts would be minimal, as local districts would be receiving the same amount of state revenue.
Conclusions
Declining rural populations and shrinking school enrollments present challenges to local government and school leaders. State leaders must respond to the demographic shift and engage with local communities in thoughtful ways. All evidence supports the adoption of the Iowa model which provides support, while respecting the autonomy of local school boards. Missouri’s rural residents would benefit from a similar practice.
References
Bard, J. G., & Wieland, R. (2006). Rural School Consolidation: History, Research Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations. Rural Educator, 27, 40-48.
Bardach, E. & Patashnik, E. (2016). A Practical Guide for Policy Analysis. Sage: Los Angeles.
Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (2018). Missouri Comprehensive Data System. Retrieved from https://mcds.dese.mo.gov/quickfacts/Pages/default.aspx
Elf, T. L. (2001). Evaluation of a Single School District Consolidation in Ohio. American Secondary Education, 30(1), 71.
Iowa Department of Education (2017). Whole Grade Sharing. Retrieved from https://educateiowa.gov/whole-grade-sharing
Loss, C. & McGuinn, P. (2016). The Convergence of K-12 and Higher Education. Harvard Education Press: Cambridge.
Mouw, C. (2013). Game theory, political psychology, and the process of democratization. The Global Studies Journal. 5 (2). 7-17.
National Center for Educational Statistics. (2016). Digest of Educational Statistics 2016. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2017094
Nitta, Keith A., Holley, Marc J., Wrobel, Sharon L. (2014). A Phenomenological Study of Rural School Consolidation. Journal of Research in Rural Education, 15510670, 20100101, Vol. 25, Issue 2.
United States Census Bureau (2016). Quick Facts Carroll County, Missouri. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/carrollcountymissouri,MO,US/PST120216#viewtop
United States Department of Agriculture (2017). Farms and Land in Farms. Retrieved from
Reischman, C. (2015). Bahr pushes to consolidate rural school districts. The Missouri Times. March 24, 2015.
Rooney, S. (2018, April 19). Committee vote: no consolidation. The Richmond Daily News. p. 1.
Rooney, S. (2014, January 16). April Election on Norborne, H-C Boundaries. The Richmond Daily News. p. 1.
Samuelson, L. (2016). Game theory in economics and beyond. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 30, 107-130.
Zimmer, T., DeBoer, L., & Hirth, M. (2009). Examining Economies of Scale in School Consolidation: Assessment of Indiana School Districts. Journal of Education Finance, 35, Issue 2.
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