Figure 1
Effect of District Enrollment on Projected Change in HS Enrollment (2018-27)
|
|
N
|
Mean
|
Std. Deviation
|
Std. Error Mean
|
|
% change
|
Smallest Districts
|
122
|
-0.14
|
0.305
|
0.027
|
|
Largest Districts
|
122
|
0.002
|
0.181
|
0.016
|
Effect of District Enrollment on Projected Change in HS Enrollment (2018-27)
|
|
|
Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
|
|
F
|
Sig.
|
t
|
df
|
Sig. (2-tailed)
|
% change
|
Equal variances assumed
|
23.616
|
0
|
-4.396
|
242
|
0
|
|
Equal variances not assumed
|
|
|
-4.396
|
197.031
|
0
|
Figure 2
Effect of District Enrollment on Percentage of Students Scoring Advanced
|
|
|
|
N
|
Mean
|
Std. Deviation
|
Std. Error Mean
|
|
% advanced
|
Smallest Districts
|
160
|
17.53
|
8.73007
|
0.69017
|
|
|
Largest Districts
|
160
|
17.5225
|
6.67354
|
0.52759
|
|
Effect of District Enrollment on Proficiency Percentage
|
|
|
Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
|
F
|
Sig.
|
t
|
df
|
Sig. (2-tailed)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% advanced
|
Equal variances assumed
|
9.154
|
0.003
|
0.009
|
318
|
0.993
|
|
Equal variances not assumed
|
0.009
|
297.523
|
0.993
|
Figure 3
Effect on District Enrollment on Fund Balance Growth (2005-2011)
|
|
N
|
Mean
|
Std. Deviation
|
Std. Error Mean
|
|
fundgrowth
|
Smallest Districts
|
183
|
0.6354
|
3.00372
|
0.22204
|
|
Largest Districts
|
183
|
0.2019
|
2.15953
|
0.15964
|
Independent Samples Test
|
|
|
|
|
|
Levene's Test for Equality of Variances
|
|
F
|
Sig.
|
t
|
df
|
Sig. (2-tailed)
|
fundgrowth
|
Equal variances assumed
|
2.2
|
0.139
|
-1.585
|
364
|
0.114
|
|
Equal variances not assumed
|
|
|
-1.585
|
330.478
|
0.114
|
Source: DESE
Evaluating Alternatives
Determining an appropriate public policy response often relies on analyzing various models (Bardoch & Patashnik, 2016). Consolidation efforts in other states allow Missouri policy makers to assess the models based on actual outcomes.
One model could be described as consolidation through state mandate. Arkansas used this model with Act 60 (Nita, 2010). Another Missouri neighbor, Nebraska, also mandated school consolidation, through the closing of kindergarten through eighth grade schools (Surface, 2012). In Missouri, this approach has been advocated by legislators seeking to close small districts, but has not received enough statewide support to be implemented (Reishman, 2015).
Rather than force consolidation through mandate, Missouri’s state government has adopted a do-nothing model. Local school boards and communities respond to declining enrollments at their own discretion. Rarely do local school boards make the difficult decision to close a district to join another, and when they do, the community suffers from the divisions and disruptions, as in the case of the Stet closure in 2014 (Rooney, 2014). Missouri’s school funding policies disincentivize consolidation as found by the Hardin and Norborne community members (Rooney, 2018).
A third model can be found in Iowa, which neither mandates consolidation or leaves local communities to negotiate decline enrollment with no support. Iowa code section 282.10 allows communities to negotiate an intermediate phase of consolidation through a process known as whole grade sharing (Iowa Department of Education). This model allows neighboring districts to share resources, while maintaining independent school boards and receiving the same state funding.
Predicting Outcomes
If state leaders continue with a do nothing approach to declining enrollment, predicting outcomes is straightforward. Rural districts will continue to decline in enrollment. While some communities may seek consolidation with their neighbors, game theory suggests most will hold tightly to their districts. As in the case of Stet, communities will struggle to determine when their district is no longer viable. Dissolutions of districts will only occur after capacity to deliver quality educational experiences begins to diminish. The outliers who seek planned consolidation will find, as the Norborne/Hardin group did, state funding policies a deterrent to their efforts.
Should the state adopt a forced consolidation model, the process will happen faster, but local communities will not have as much agency in crucial decisions such as the setting of boundaries and closure of schools. Leading new districts in communities that have been forced together without consent will be challenging for boards and administrators. Over time, students will benefit from consolidation, but the transitions will be disruptive. Political pushback will be significant.
The Iowa model of whole grade sharing presents a third path. Should the state support communities that show interest in pooling resources voluntarily, overcoming the inertia of community identity will be less difficult for local leaders. An external change in financial factors would likely force parties to adjust their strategies and increase the likelihood of a Nash equilibrium emerging (Williamson 2013). Students and families can receive the benefits of consolidation without the disruption that can occur if the merger is dictated from the state capitol.
Confronting Tradeoffs
Evaluating trade-offs and outcomes requires leaders to consider “projections of policy outcomes for the various alternatives being considered” (Bardach & Patashnik, p. 47). Ignoring declining enrollments avoids short term political complications. Because data suggests academic outcomes are not significantly impacted by attending school in a smaller setting, no sense of emergency exists to motivate local leaders. Responsibility for evaluating the viability of the local district is passed to a future generation of local leaders. However, in the time that passes, students miss the improved social and extracurricular activities the literature documents. Teachers miss the professional support they would find in a larger district. Forced consolidation may accelerate a process which ultimately leads to better outcomes; however, community involvement in some decisions may be limited. The literature suggests that community engagement in the process is correlated to the ultimate success of the district.
Policies which incentivise consolidation empower local leaders to support and direct the pace and logistics of a consolidation effort. Students and teachers benefit, and disruption is minimized. The adoption of a policy permitting whole grade sharing would stress some sectors of the administrative bureaucracy; however, the state budget impacts would be minimal, as local districts would be receiving the same amount of state revenue.
Conclusions
Declining rural populations and shrinking school enrollments present challenges to local government and school leaders. State leaders must respond to the demographic shift and engage with local communities in thoughtful ways. All evidence supports the adoption of the Iowa model which provides support, while respecting the autonomy of local school boards. Missouri’s rural residents would benefit from a similar practice.
References
Bard, J. G., & Wieland, R. (2006). Rural School Consolidation: History, Research Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations. Rural Educator, 27, 40-48.
Bardach, E. & Patashnik, E. (2016). A Practical Guide for Policy Analysis. Sage: Los Angeles.
Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (2018). Missouri Comprehensive Data System. Retrieved from https://mcds.dese.mo.gov/quickfacts/Pages/default.aspx
Elf, T. L. (2001). Evaluation of a Single School District Consolidation in Ohio. American Secondary Education, 30(1), 71.
Iowa Department of Education (2017). Whole Grade Sharing. Retrieved from https://educateiowa.gov/whole-grade-sharing
Loss, C. & McGuinn, P. (2016). The Convergence of K-12 and Higher Education. Harvard Education Press: Cambridge.
Mouw, C. (2013). Game theory, political psychology, and the process of democratization. The Global Studies Journal. 5 (2). 7-17.
National Center for Educational Statistics. (2016). Digest of Educational Statistics 2016. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2017094
Nitta, Keith A., Holley, Marc J., Wrobel, Sharon L. (2014). A Phenomenological Study of Rural School Consolidation. Journal of Research in Rural Education, 15510670, 20100101, Vol. 25, Issue 2.
United States Department of Agriculture (2017). Farms and Land in Farms. Retrieved from
Reischman, C. (2015). Bahr pushes to consolidate rural school districts. The Missouri Times. March 24, 2015.
Rooney, S. (2018, April 19). Committee vote: no consolidation. The Richmond Daily News. p. 1.
Rooney, S. (2014, January 16). April Election on Norborne, H-C Boundaries. The Richmond Daily News. p. 1.
Samuelson, L. (2016). Game theory in economics and beyond. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 30, 107-130.
Zimmer, T., DeBoer, L., & Hirth, M. (2009). Examining Economies of Scale in School Consolidation: Assessment of Indiana School Districts. Journal of Education Finance, 35, Issue 2.